Talking down the UKI have followed the various contributions on the UK's EU referendum with interest and I have some sympathy with Paul G's contention that it is a good idea to separate what we know has or will happen from what we merely think (i.e. guess) may happen.
There is something else we should do. We should at least try to explore the motives that prompted the protagonists to promote particular speculations. We can't be sure but we can make some intelligent guesses. Those who predicted dire economic consequences wanted the UK to remain in the EU. Some of them predicted these consequences because they truly believed it was in the UK's interest. Note the word 'believed'. But there were others who predicted dire consequences if we left, because they were motivated by a desire to hold on to their extremely well-paid jobs. After all, there are 10,000 bureaucrats and politicians in Brussels earning more than the UK prime minister. And it provides many well-paid sinecures for politicians and economists from all over Europe who have passed their sell-by date.
It is one week since we voted to leave. We still don't know the economic consequences. Shares fell; then recovered in many cases to higher levels than before the referendum. Sterling fell and has recovered a little. The fall in sterling helps exports which is a factor in the recovery of share prices but there is also an element of correction to the hysterical response to the leave vote.
What will happen now, we don't know. There is uncertainty. As we are continually told, we are in uncharted territory. But we can be certain of one thing. If Mark Carney and George Osborne talk the UK down, they will not merely be predicting the future, they will be helping to make it happen. Of course if there was clear evidence that the country was experiencing serious economic difficulties, we would expect Carney and Osborne to have prepared measures to deal with the situation. But to announce the measures and difficulties before the problems arise is irresponsible.
So why on earth are they doing it? Is it sour grapes because their advice was ignored? Is Osborne taking the opportunity to abandon an economic target he had little chance of hitting. .We cannot know. But we can be sure that their predictions of dire economic consequences make these consequences much more likely.
In private they may say what they like. But in public, their job is to state what they know, not what they think might happen. If they wish to speculate, they should talk the UK up, not down. They are public employees, and owe a duty of care to those who pay their salaries.